Contreras Returns for 2 Yrs./$5.5m

The Phillies have decided to bring back Jose Contreras for 2 years at $2.75 million per season. This seems fine with me. Contreras is getting older (he says he's 39... he could be 48), but was great this year. In particular, he had tremendous movement on his splitter throughout the season and into the playoffs. Also, I don't think much better options exist on the market at a lower price. Ideally, he will pair with a rejuvenated Danys Baez (who is signed through 2011 and probably untradable at the moment) to form a nice 6th-7th inning combo. This, combined with a young arm --- Scott Mathieson, Antonio Bastardo and/or Vance Worley --, a new LOOGY (I like Taylor Tankersley or Pedro Feliciano, personally), and Madson/Lidge at the back-end form a solid bullpen.

Regarding one of these points, GM Ruben Amaro recently said that acquiring a lefty reliever is not a priority. He's either lying or crazy (probably the former). The Phils have no established lefty relievers on their roster. Bastardo has talent, but clearly we'll need a bit more depth. I fully expect the position to be addressed by March.

Is Mike Schmidt Underrated?

Today I pose the following question that I was recently asked by a friend: is Mike Schmidt, the greatest Phillie to ever live, underrated by the baseball community?

In 1999, Schmidt was ranked the 28th best baseball player of all-time by the Sporting News. Notably, he was the highest ranked 3rd baseman. In addition, he was named to MLB's All-Century Team. It's fair to say that baseball writers have consistently called Schmidt the game's best at his respective position.

But are they still selling him short? Let's consider the numbers.

Schmidt ranks 39th all-time in Adjusted OPS+ (147), my favorite offensive statistic. But more can be said in support of him. Four steroid users --- Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Manny Ramirez, and Alex Rodriguez --- are ahead of Schmidt. As far as I'm concerned, these achievements are null and void. In addition, Schmidt was a third baseman, a difficult position to play and one that historically has not produced a high number of offensive standouts. In fact, only three (3) non-outfielders/first basemen all-time have a higher Adjusted OPS+ than Mike Schmidt: Rogers Hornsby, Nap Lajoie, and Honus Wagner. Edgar Martinez retired with the same figure as Schmidt (147), but played the majority of his career as a DH. Taking nothing away from their great careers, neither Hornsby, Lajoie, nor Wagner played a day after 1937. Therefore, none ever played in an integrated game. Therefore, an argument can be made that Schmidt is the greatest offensive non-outfielder/first baseman of the past 75 years, if not all-time.

Schmidt also put up amazing counting numbers. He hit 548 home runs in the 70s and 80s, easily the highest figure for those two decades. He led the league in home runs an astounding 8 times --- second only to Babe Ruth. During the two decades in which he played, Schmidt was simply in a different dimension than his peers.

Schmidt, however, was not only an offensive standout. He was an exceptional defensive third-baseman, an extremely important position. He won 10 Gold Gloves and by all accounts, earned them. Only 15 players in MLB history can claim to have won double-digit Gold Gloves. Of the 15, only Willie Mays competes with Schmidt offensively in terms of Adj. OPS+. Ken Griffey Jr. and his 630 HRs indeed surpass Schmidt in terms of counting stats, but he was an outfielder in a hitters' era.

Imagine if Schmidt had played after expansion, or better yet, in Citizens Bank Park! What would his career numbers look like?

There's something about baseball in the 1970s and 80s that seems not to excite baseball historians, writers, etc. It was a time for multi-purpose, astroturfed stadiums. It was the age of 150-lb. slap hitters. Save the A's and Reds in the early 1970s and there were no dynasties. Historically speaking, it was a quieter time for the game than the 50s, 60s, 90s, or 2000s. Perhaps this explains why Schmidt, in my view, remains underrated. Or perhaps it's because he played in the Philly, which in those days was not a particularly high-profile baseball town.

Whatever the reason, Schmidt is never discussed among the game's greatest players of all-time. When all things are considered, however, it's difficult for me to rank him anywhere outside the top 7 or 8 all-time for position players or the top 12 to 15 for all players (including pitchers). Am I crazy?

Phils Increase Ticket Prices for 2011

The Phillies today announced an increase in ticket prices; hikes will range from $2 to $5 per seat throughout the park in 2011.

I suppose this was to be expected. After all, the team set a home attendance record of 3,647,249 fans and will enter the 2011 season with a streak of 123 consecutive sellouts. The average attendance in 2010 was 45,028/game.

According to Team Marketing Report, the Phils' average ticket price in 2010 was $32,99, good for 5th in MLB. It is unclear whether the new increases will leap the Phils into a higher slot in 2011.

I'll be completely honest; this doesn't bother me. As a "long distance" fan who attends 2-3 home games per season, I'm actually more pleased that the team will be able to increase it's revenue (and hopefully, payroll) in 2011.

From a less selfish perspective, I also think it's defensible. The Phils play in a Top 5 market, in a Top 5-10 stadium, and are one of the best 5 teams in baseball. Therefore, they have every right (in my view) to charge Top 5 prices.

Phillies Reportedly Considering Aaron Rowand

Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated reported today that the Phils would consider re-acquiring Aaron Rowand from the World Champion San Francisco Giants (wow, that's weird to write) if they are unable to sign Jayson Werth.

Rowand, a fan favorite while with the Phils (2006-07), is due $12 million next season. According to the report, the Giants would need to pick-up part of Rowand's salary to make the move happen. The Giants are likely to go with Andres Torres in center-field after Rowand's poor season, so shedding any of his salary would be beneficial to them.

Having not seen any proposed offer, or the amount of $ the Giants would pick-up, this seems like a mistake to me. Rowand, a free-swinging strikeout (74 Ks in 330 ABs in 2010) threat, is clearly on the offensive decline. He posted an OPS of .659 in 2010, a deplorable figure for a starting outfielder. He's also lost a step in the outfield. To me, there are much better options. I would consider Marcus Thames, who is likely to leave the Yankees. Magglio Ordonez, who Heyman also said is on the Phils' radar, is also intriguing at the right price.

I just hope that sentimentality and visions of Rowand crashing into the fence don't sway the Phils. Losing Jayson Werth is serious, and a legitimate right-handed bat is needed to replace him (at least on a platoon basis).

Giants-Rangers, Game 1 Tonight

I've heard a lot of chatter about how this World Series isn't interesting and will suffer from lower-than-usual ratings. On the latter point, I agree. The San Francisco and Dallas markets are large, but they aren't as expansive as say, New York and Philadelphia. On the former point, however, I strongly disagree. This World Series is a battle between two moderately-financed clubs enjoying dividends from good scouting, strong coaching, and shrewd trades. Much as I wish this series included the Phils, it could be good for baseball.

We've been hearing about the strong Rangers' farm-system for some time, and now we're seeing it develop. Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz, C.J. Wilson, Colby Lewis, and Tommy Hunter are young, homegrown guys that made the Rangers a much better club. Enter the Josh Hamilton trade, the cheap Nelson Cruz pickup, and of course, the Cliff Lee deadline move, and you have a contending team. Give John Daniels, their 33-year-old GM, a lot of credit.

The Giants, for many years, did quite a bit wrong. They declared a youth movement in the shadow of Barry Bonds, but went ahead and signed Edgar Renteria, Aaron Roward, and Barry Zito to some of the worst contracts in MLB. But since those moves, the front office deserves credit. During the course of the season, it has built at least a league average lineup by calling up Buster Posey, signing a seemingly-washed up Pat Burrell, claiming Cody Ross off waivers, and replacing Rowand with Andres Torres in center. Combine this with the best pitching staff in baseball --- almost all home grown by the way --- and you have a 92-win team.

In this interesting match-up of two teams never to win the World Series (at least in their current cities), I am rooting for the Rangers. I typically root for the NL team if it isn't the Phillies, but a few factors have altered my calculus:

1. I have a man-crush on Cliff Lee. Recently, Lee was criticized for saying he "kind of" enjoyed watching the Phillies lose the NLCS because they got rid of him. I don't find this offensive at all. Lee was treated poorly after pitching his lights out in last year's playoffs, and he ought not to like our franchise too much. The feelings, however, are not mutual. I would love to see him win.

2. Tim Lincecum is a d-bag. And, yes, so is Pat Burrell. And so is Jonathan "I can't hit water when I fall out of a f&%kin boat" Sanchez.

3. I love the Rangers line-up. And in the end, I'll take mashers over pitchers.

4. The Giants just beat us! Yeah, I'll admit it. I'm bitter. I watched them celebrate at CBP (on TV, at least). I'd like to see them dejected.

Anyways, that's my take. Enjoy the Series --- it should be a good one.

Report: Werth Wants 6 Years, $108 Million

It was reported earlier by a Daily News writer that Jayson Werth appears to be seeking $18 million/year for 6 years. While this cannot be verified, it isn't too surprising of an ask for a Scott Boras client.

Yesterday, Ruben Amaro said that Werth had "a good year," but wasn't as good as he had been in the past. With all due respect, I don't think the numbers back that statement up --- Werth had a career-high OPS and played a stellar right-field. Nevertheless, it's the right posture for Ruben to take. If I were him, I'd play the RISP card as much as possible.

All signs indicate that Werth is going to sign with the highest-bidder. Generally, you don't hire Scott Boras to sign for a hometown discount. Also, when asked about the situation yesterday, Werth reminded us all that baseball "is a business." The best he could do for the Phils, the team that gave him his shot, was to say that they're "on the list."

If the highest bidder turns out to offer $108 million over 6 years, then I hope it isn't the Phillies. I love Jayson Werth, but he isn't worth it. It's too long of a deal for a 31-year-old and frankly, it's too much money. I'd rather take my chances with Dom Brown, Ben Francisco, and a cheap, right-handed bat (I still like Marcus Thames) that we can sign this winter.

Update: Also, the Phils today declined their $4.5 million option on J.C. Romero, instead paying him a $250,000 buyout. I'd be in favor of bringing Romero back at a reduced rate if he'd accept. I don't believe, however, that he is suited to be our best left-handed option in the bullpen.

The Jayson Werth Situation, Part One

I imagine that the Jayson Werth situation is something that’ll get a lot of attention over the next month or so. So lets get our discussion started on this site.

Several reports over the past few days have noted that many Phillies players expect Jayson Werth to sign elsewhere. This is not terribly surprising; the consensus opinion has figured as such for quite some time. The Phils have about $140 million committed to less than 20 players in 2011, and it’s unlikely that they’ll wish to commit another $15-$20 million/year to Werth (who, much like their other commitments, is on the wrong side of 30).

I understand this, though it’s not going to be pretty. Make no mistake, Werth was the best offensive player on the Phils this season. Yes, he hit below .200 with RISP, and that’s a problem. But in my view, that’s mostly random and could improve from year to year --- for his career, Werth has an .816 OPS (on-base plus slugging %) mark with RISP, which is pretty good.

Werth had the 6th highest OPS in the NL this year, and was the only Phil over .900. He continued to play a strong outfield and run the bases well. Finally, he’s basically the only right-handed power source in a lineup full of lefties. Anyone who saw the Giants use Javier Lopez, Jeremy Affeldt, and Madison Baumgartner to chew the Phils’ offense apart this past week should be weary of swapping Werth for Domonic Brown, yet another lefthander.

Don’t get me wrong. I like Dom Brown and I think the Phils need to start adding youth (and some cheapness) to their lineup. I just think they need to make another move in the meantime. Given his performance this year, I don’t think it’s responsible to pencil Raul Ibanez into left-field in 2011. He’ll be difficult to trade, but I’d try. I’d even be willing to eat $3-$4 million of his $11.5 million salary. And even if they can’t move him, I would like to see them add a right-handed bat to take some ABs from Raul in left. It doesn’t need to be a long-term, expensive bat, but just somebody who can produce against left-handed pitching. A quick glance at the upcoming free agent list indicates that options are limited, though there are some possibilities. Depending on what the Yankees do, Marcus Thames might be a fit. You know who else is a free-agent left-fielder who can still hit? --- that’s right, Pat Burrell. I don’t see that happening. Burrell is a very serious liability in the field and has a deeply schizophrenic bat --- something we certainly don’t need.

Given that Brown is no guarantee in right, and Ben Francisco has not upped his game to earn more time, I think it’s essential that we add depth to the corner-outfield positions.

More generally, however, I wish this wasn’t necessary. Had the Phils not 1) prematurely picked up J-Roll’s 2011 option, 2) signed Joe Blanton for 3 years/$24 million, and 3) given Ryan Howard one of the worst contracts in baseball, they’d have a lot more payroll flexibility and signing Werth would be very doable.

In my view, it makes much more sense to keep Werth for the long haul than Howard. First, Werth is a better VORP player, which is to say that the difference between him and an average right-fielder is greater (more positive) than the difference between Howard and an average first-basemen. Also, he’s a much better defensive player, a better and faster base-runner, and finally, he’s leaner and likely to age much better than Howard.

Nevertheless, the Phils can’t go back and undo past moves. Given their current situation, I would like to see a move for a relatively cheap right-handed bat in left-field. If they are able to trade Ibanez, so much the better.

Source: Photo from AFP