It's Official; Cliff Lee is Returning to Philly!

Multiple sources now confirm that Cliff Lee will sign with the Phillies. The deal is believed to be for around 5 years/$115 million. It also includes an easily attainable option for a 6th year. Lee took substantially less guaranteed money to return to the Phils. Considering that the team abruptly traded him just one year ago, this can only be described as stunning.

I have never seen a turn of events quite like this during the free-agent period.

At the moment, the Phillies have a rotation of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels.

Pinch me.

Report: Phillies May Re-Acquire Lee

In a truly stunning development, the Phillies appear to be in hot pursuit of left-handed starter Cliff Lee (32). For weeks, speculation has centered on mainly the Yankees and Rangers, but for days a "mystery team" has been making waves. Today, it was confirmed by multiple sources (Jayson Stark, Jon Heyman, etc.) that the Phillies are indeed this team.

Lee was famously traded by Ruben Amaro about a year ago for 3 lousy prospects in a move coordinated with the acquisition of Roy Halladay from the Blue Jays. But Lee reportedly loved his time in Philly and may take a shorter contract to return. If Amaro is able to sign Lee, it will be yet another in a series of bold moves since he became team GM two years ago.

The move could give the Phils the most impressive on-paper rotation in recent MLB memory. In doing so, they would almost certainly need to move Joe Blanton and the $17 million he is owed over the next 2 seasons.

It is too early to get excited about this possibility, and I will not yet assume it is wise (we have no idea what the numbers would be). That said, this is shocking, exciting, and fascinating.

The Carl Crawford Myth

I can’t take it anymore; the conventional wisdom is driving me crazy. Carl Crawford is overrated! I can say with confidence that whoever signs Crawford in the coming days will make an even bigger mistake than the Nationals did yesterday with Jayson Werth.

Crawford, the so-called “prize” of the 2010 FA class, is actually only a slightly above average hitter. He has a career .781 OPS --- 21 points lower than Marcus Thames. He has never hit 20 homers in a season, nor recorded an OBP north of .364. Yes, he is a prolific base stealer, but is this really something that teams should bank on as he gets into his thirties? (any contract he signs will likely take him to about 35-37). According to Baseball Reference, Crawford’s career progression compares most closely to Roberto Kelly, a sometimes starting outfielder for 8 different clubs (most notably the Yankees) between 1987 and 2000.

Even in his career year of 2010 (which was also his contract year), Crawford posted an .851 OPS…about 20 points lower than Pat Burrell --- who just signed a 1 year, $1 million deal with SF.

Jayson Werth, who also has speed and plays a great rightfield, was clearly the best offensive free agent on the market this year. Werth has posted a higher OPS than Crawford’s career year in each of the last 4 seasons. And somewhere after Werth, Adam Dunn and possibly a few others (Adrian Beltre, V-Mart, Lance Berkman) lies Carl Crawford.

I understand that rate stats aren’t everything, but Crawford represents the other extreme. He is the prototypical “tools” player… the guy who can “hurt you in so many different ways.” But baseball isn’t about hurting the opposition through various methods… it’s about net production. On that count, Carl Crawford is a good player who probably represents the 70th percentile of big league outfielders. Despite this, he’s about to be paid like one of the 3 or 4 best players in all of baseball.

The Nats may have erred by committing big money and years to Jayson Werth, but I applaud them for at least identifying the best outfielder on the market in 2010.

Amaro: Phils May Not Add Right-Handed Bat to Replace Werth

Ruben Amaro, who apparently offered Jayson Werth "Jason Bay money" (about 4 yrs./$66 million), said today that the right-fielder's departure does not necessarily mean the Phils will seek out an external replacement for him.

Such a statement would not have been surprising three months ago. But since, Domonic Brown has finished the 2010 season with a .210 average and played very poorly in winter ball.

I actually think entering the year with a Ben Francisco/Dom Brown platoon isn't crazy at all. Francisco was an above-average hitter this past season, while Brown's stumbles are being over-analyzed. If either or both turn out to be busts in 2011, then the Phils can always address the issue at the deadline... there's never a shortage of right-handed outfielders. That said, if a bargain becomes available in the off-season (Jermaine Dye for the veteran minimum?), I'd like to see us jump.

I would recommend that the team's primary focus be on adding 1 or 2 solid lefty relievers before Spring Training.

Werth Signs with Nationals

Jayson Werth, the best Phils' hitter in 2010 and an integral part of the 2008 championship team, is gone tonight.

Werth signed a 7 yr./$126 million deal with the Washington Nationals, the NL East's perennial last place team. With all due respect to Werth, who I continue to think is underrated by many baseball fans, the terms of this contract are a bit ridiculous. A seven-year deal for a 31-year-old player with a history of wrist issues is way too risky. $18 million/year is a fine price for an elite player, but Werth has only been a top outfielder for 2 years. Each of these years came at Citizens Bank Park with a top lineup around him. He now heads to DC, where he'll play in a big park alongside a decent lineup, at best.

The move makes even less sense coming from the Nats. If the Red Sox or Angels threw this $ at Werth, I'd think it was too high, but would understand that these teams are wealthy and may (rightfully) believe that Werth is the piece separating them from contention, or even a championship. But the Nationals are not one piece away. They remain, even with this signing, arguably the worst team in the NL East. They also have very low fan support and therefore little payroll flexibility. Does it really make sense to spend 25%-30% of the team's payroll (for years to come) on 1 player who may lead you to 75 wins? I think not.

I've been to Nationals Park many times. The crowd is uneducated, disinterested, and small...very small. Perhaps Werth was given a false impression of the DC crowd playing for the Phillies. When the Phils come to town, the crowd is loud and large. The reason: Phillies fans are there. I hope (actually, I don't give a s*it) Werth is ready for an adjustment. He has just chosen to leave one of the most exciting baseball cities in the country (with over 100 consecutive sellouts) for one who routinely struggles to sellout it's home-opener.

Thanks for your service Jayson, but I think the best and most exciting days of your career are behind you.

Contreras Returns for 2 Yrs./$5.5m

The Phillies have decided to bring back Jose Contreras for 2 years at $2.75 million per season. This seems fine with me. Contreras is getting older (he says he's 39... he could be 48), but was great this year. In particular, he had tremendous movement on his splitter throughout the season and into the playoffs. Also, I don't think much better options exist on the market at a lower price. Ideally, he will pair with a rejuvenated Danys Baez (who is signed through 2011 and probably untradable at the moment) to form a nice 6th-7th inning combo. This, combined with a young arm --- Scott Mathieson, Antonio Bastardo and/or Vance Worley --, a new LOOGY (I like Taylor Tankersley or Pedro Feliciano, personally), and Madson/Lidge at the back-end form a solid bullpen.

Regarding one of these points, GM Ruben Amaro recently said that acquiring a lefty reliever is not a priority. He's either lying or crazy (probably the former). The Phils have no established lefty relievers on their roster. Bastardo has talent, but clearly we'll need a bit more depth. I fully expect the position to be addressed by March.

Is Mike Schmidt Underrated?

Today I pose the following question that I was recently asked by a friend: is Mike Schmidt, the greatest Phillie to ever live, underrated by the baseball community?

In 1999, Schmidt was ranked the 28th best baseball player of all-time by the Sporting News. Notably, he was the highest ranked 3rd baseman. In addition, he was named to MLB's All-Century Team. It's fair to say that baseball writers have consistently called Schmidt the game's best at his respective position.

But are they still selling him short? Let's consider the numbers.

Schmidt ranks 39th all-time in Adjusted OPS+ (147), my favorite offensive statistic. But more can be said in support of him. Four steroid users --- Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Manny Ramirez, and Alex Rodriguez --- are ahead of Schmidt. As far as I'm concerned, these achievements are null and void. In addition, Schmidt was a third baseman, a difficult position to play and one that historically has not produced a high number of offensive standouts. In fact, only three (3) non-outfielders/first basemen all-time have a higher Adjusted OPS+ than Mike Schmidt: Rogers Hornsby, Nap Lajoie, and Honus Wagner. Edgar Martinez retired with the same figure as Schmidt (147), but played the majority of his career as a DH. Taking nothing away from their great careers, neither Hornsby, Lajoie, nor Wagner played a day after 1937. Therefore, none ever played in an integrated game. Therefore, an argument can be made that Schmidt is the greatest offensive non-outfielder/first baseman of the past 75 years, if not all-time.

Schmidt also put up amazing counting numbers. He hit 548 home runs in the 70s and 80s, easily the highest figure for those two decades. He led the league in home runs an astounding 8 times --- second only to Babe Ruth. During the two decades in which he played, Schmidt was simply in a different dimension than his peers.

Schmidt, however, was not only an offensive standout. He was an exceptional defensive third-baseman, an extremely important position. He won 10 Gold Gloves and by all accounts, earned them. Only 15 players in MLB history can claim to have won double-digit Gold Gloves. Of the 15, only Willie Mays competes with Schmidt offensively in terms of Adj. OPS+. Ken Griffey Jr. and his 630 HRs indeed surpass Schmidt in terms of counting stats, but he was an outfielder in a hitters' era.

Imagine if Schmidt had played after expansion, or better yet, in Citizens Bank Park! What would his career numbers look like?

There's something about baseball in the 1970s and 80s that seems not to excite baseball historians, writers, etc. It was a time for multi-purpose, astroturfed stadiums. It was the age of 150-lb. slap hitters. Save the A's and Reds in the early 1970s and there were no dynasties. Historically speaking, it was a quieter time for the game than the 50s, 60s, 90s, or 2000s. Perhaps this explains why Schmidt, in my view, remains underrated. Or perhaps it's because he played in the Philly, which in those days was not a particularly high-profile baseball town.

Whatever the reason, Schmidt is never discussed among the game's greatest players of all-time. When all things are considered, however, it's difficult for me to rank him anywhere outside the top 7 or 8 all-time for position players or the top 12 to 15 for all players (including pitchers). Am I crazy?